The puzzling behaviour of Cyclone Biparjoy left experts baffled as it changed its predicted path multiple times before eventually heading for Gujarat. This cyclonic storm that formed on 6 June is one of the longest-lasting cyclonic formations seen in India in recent times. Despite their historical rarity, studies indicate that the Arabian Sea is experiencing an upsurge in the frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms, attributed to the rapid warming of sea surface temperatures. As per an analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, the eastern coast has experienced a higher frequency of cyclones in the last 50 years – from 1971 to 2020 – which has forced states such as Odisha and Andhra Pradesh to increase their adaptive capacity. However, the recent increase in cyclones in the Arabian Sea calls for an assessment of the preparedness of states along the western coast.
Is climate change affecting the cyclonic process in the Arabian Sea?
The Arabian Sea has traditionally been a relatively cooler body of water compared to the Bay of Bengal, but due to rising sea surface temperatures, it has now become a favourable zone for cyclone formation. A recent study revealed that the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has increased by almost 52 per cent in the past two decades (2001-2019) compared to the previous two decades (1982-2000). Interestingly, while the frequency of cyclones has risen, their translation speed, or the rate at which they move, has decreased. This phenomenon has resulted in cyclones lasting almost 80 per cent longer than before. Additionally, there has been a staggering 150 per cent rise in the occurrence of highly severe cyclones such as Vayu, Nisarga, Kyarr, and Tauktae.
The trend has caused districts such as Kutch, Morbi, and Jamnagar to show a swapping trend from droughts to floods and cyclones, as per CEEW’s Climate Vulnerability Index. These districts are also currently under a red alert by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for cyclone Biparjoy’s landfall.
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Arabian Sea cyclones a worrying sign for India
An increase in these cyclones impacts the southwest monsoon and agriculture. The southwest monsoon, responsible for about 70 per cent of the annual rainfall from June to September, is vital for the country’s agricultural sector. This year, cyclone Biparjoy played a role in delaying the onset of monsoon over Kerala by eight days as it drew moisture away from the Indian mainland to the sea. This time of the year is crucial for sowing Kharif crops, and delayed rains significantly impact it.
India’s renewable energy push highly depends on the west coast’s wind potential. For example, the installed wind energy capacity in Gujarat currently is greater than 10,000 MW, a significant portion of which lies close to the coast. Moreover, the offshore wind energy potential off the coast of Gujarat is estimated to be greater than 35 GW. Recently, the power ministry announced its plans to build transmission infrastructure at the Khavda Hybrid Renewable Energy Park in Gujarat, close to the Kutch coast, at a cost of Rs 18,598 crore. Gujarat has already seen the impact of cyclones on wind turbines in 1998. While the typical survival wind speeds of a wind turbine are between 40-60 metres per second, in the 1998 cyclone, wind speeds exceeded 120 metres per second. Increasing cyclones in these regions, hence, put our renewable energy ambitions at risk, and it is critical to climate-proof the energy infrastructure to ensure a smooth energy transition.
The west coast has several major ports and important cities, including Mumbai, Mangaluru, Surat and Kochi. It also boasts popular tourist destinations like Goa and emerging urban centres. However, these regions, apart from extreme cyclonic winds, also face the risk of associated climatic events such as extreme rainfall. As per a CEEW analysis, the frequency of associated events such as heavy rainfall has increased with cyclones over the past decade in India. This puts these regions at an increased risk of flooding.
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Steps to climate-proof the west coast
First, conduct granular extreme climate event risk assessments of the existing and planned renewable energy infrastructure along the west coast. These assessments should incorporate an estimation of the costs associated with the potential loss and damage of the generation and transmission infrastructure. By assessing these aspects, stakeholders can better prepare themselves to address any potential disruptions and enhance the overall resilience of the electrical grid.
Second, mainstream core cyclone preparedness measures, such as multi-purpose shelters along the west coast, as the eastern states have done so well. As per the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP), the number of allocated cyclone shelters (planned plus pending) is comparatively less on the western coast. For example, the highest in the west, Gujarat, has 76 shelters, while Odisha has 316. Moreover, it is surprising that Maharashtra and Goa, despite the vast difference in the lengths of their coastlines, have a near similar number of shelters allocated under the NCRMP. This allocation needs to be reevaluated now.
Third, India should continue to invest in improving its cyclone forecasting abilities and their impact on critical systems such as the Indian monsoon. The increase in outlay for the Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS) programme under the Ministry of Earth Sciences in Budget 2023-24 is a welcome move. Accurate weather forecasting requires global cooperation. India already has an MoU with the Met Office, UK and has recently signed an agreement for cooperation on high-performance computing, weather extremes and climate modelling. More such technology and knowledge-sharing partnerships should be fostered.
Since the 1999 super cyclone, India has demonstrated excellent disaster management strategies to deal with cyclones, with states such as Odisha leading the way. But the changing nature of cyclones in the Arabian Sea not only puts the economy and livelihoods at risk but also poses a significant challenge to India’s energy transition. By incorporating climate risks into planning, India has a unique opportunity to climate-proof its shores, cities and economic centres while greening its future.
Shravan Prabhu is a Research Analyst and Dr Mohammad Rafiuddin is a Programme Associate at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water. They tweet at @shravanverse and @mrafiuddin50. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)